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France Elections

An obstacle course until… 18th June

By Émeric Brehier / 18 April, 2017

Read this article in French The successive trends amongst recent surveys have only served to confirm that the voter bases of the various candidates are continuing to solidify. Whilst the voter bases for the National Front candidate as well as the respective right and centre candidates were already relatively certain;...

A coconut shy election

By Émeric Brehier / 30 March, 2017

The French presidential election in reality began on Monday 20 March upon conclusion of the debate between the five leading candidates at the polls: Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This was in any case the hope of many commentators, if not the participants...

2007 – 2017: Ten years of "marino-lepen-ism"

By Nicolas Lebourg / 29 March, 2017

Read the original text in French here To truly understand the determination and drive which carries Marine Le Pen and analyse her electoral program one must first consider the 2012 presidential election before reviewing the present election. There are clear similarities between the present 2017 presidential program and the ‘strategy’...

Understanding the success of Emmanuel Macron: a graphical interpretation

By Gilles Finchelstein / 22 March, 2017

Read the original text in French here Why is Emmanuel Macron so high in the opinion polls forty days before the first round of the election? Despite being a complicated issue, it is possible to obtain an overview by considering the two charts and table below. This analysis has been...

Terra incognita

By Émeric Brehier / 20 March, 2017

Rarely has a presidential election so closely resembled a terra incognita before. It goes without saying that we must never yield to the temptation to rewrite history. The participants who have shaped the past, by their very testimonies have done so willingly. And let us not forget that political history...

The French National Front and Lebanon

By Jean-Yves Camus / 8 March, 2017

Whilst the role of the European Union on an international level is being questioned by the conflicts in the Middle East, most notably by the on-going war in Syria which causes thousands of migrants to move towards Europe, the French election campaign is also affected. By meeting with President Michel...

Who are the undecided voters?

By Adrien Abecassis / 19 March, 2017

Read the original text in French here This presidential campaign has been marked by an unprecedented amount of voter volatility. As a result, no one can predict the outcome at this stage. That being said, there is a method that can be utilised to better reflect the fluctuating voter intentions...

Uncertainties: how to define the 2017 presidential election

By Chloé Morin / 18 March, 2017

Read the original text in French here For several weeks now, commentators and polling institutes have repeatedly highlighted the low voter turnout in the upcoming presidential election. Is there any reason to predict such a low turnout in April? Is this election really a unique event and if so, is...

Macron and Hamon: where do their voter bases lie?

By Yves-Marie Cann / 17 March, 2017

Read the original text in French here How have the rallies in recent weeks changed the composition of potential voters for both Emmanuel Macron and Benoît Hamon during the first round of the presidential election? Did the rallying of François Bayrou cause a proportion of his voters to “flee” from...

Presidential election: Balance of power on the left

By Chloé Morin / 15 March, 2017

Read the original text in French here During this presidential election voters on the left are being forced to decide between several distinct routes and in this single moment power will be decided. The future and direction of the French left will largely depend on the votes cast in April and...

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